To date, the most discussed type of weapon is the Iranian Shahed 136 drone and its analogues. I would put the Shahed 136 on a par with such legendary weapons as the Kalashnikov assault rifle and the T-34 tank. Its use is really a big problem for those who do not have it. At the same time, the potential of the Shahed 136 on various fronts has not been exhausted. Its mass application can significantly influence the course of modern conflicts. But that's okay. What is the genius of Shahed 136?
The genius of this UAV is exactly the same as that of the Soviet T-34 tank and the Kalashnikov assault rifle – it is the effectiveness of combat use combined with the relatively low cost of production, which can be scaled. An example would be the T-34 tank and its comparison with the heavy German Tiger tank. The Soviet tank was inferior to the German tank in many respects. But it was more maneuverable, weighed almost twice as much and cost 10 times less. Fewer than 1,400 Tigers were produced. T-34 – more than 35 thousand. Miracles do not happen in the world and we know what the victory depends on "Who will win in an armed conflict and when: the mathematics of war". There are a lot of drones today. But it is the Shahed 136 that is cheap and at the same time it has characteristics that make the enemy wary – it carries up to 50 kg of explosives at a distance of up to 2000 km. At the same time, its cost is approximately 15-30 thousand dollars, which is 2-3 orders of magnitude less than that of most military UAVs. In fact, the production of the Shahed 136 or its analogues can be massively launched with modern technologies in 2-3 months, if the appropriate cheap electronics are available, which can still be purchased on Aliexpress. What does Shahed 136 consist of and why is it so cheap?
The developers of the Shahed 136 followed the path of the designers of the T-34 tank. They did not try to use the best world achievements and electronics, but actually assembled the drone from civilian analogues, which actually explains its cost. The Shahed 136 is a flying wing made of composite materials. Its size is 3 meters long, 2 meters wide. There is a pusher screw at the rear, and ammunition in the bow. The triangular shape and composite materials are in themselves elements of the "Stealth" technologies that the Americans used to create their "stealth aircraft". Add in the small size – all this increases the chances of the drone being unnoticed on enemy radars. The Shahed 136 can reach speeds of up to 185 km/h. On the one hand, this is a disadvantage. But on the other hand, low speed is also one of the factors of UAV survival. The low speed does not allow using the Doppler effect to detect an object. The UAV is equipped with a light engine with a capacity of 50 hp. It is clear that this is no longer a moped or a lawn mower. The drone has a clone of the German Limbach L550E aircraft engine, which weighs 16 kg and cost from 12 thousand dollars. But this is the cost for the Germans. In China or Iran, the cost of the engine will be correspondingly lower. The advantage of this engine is the presence of a built-in electric generator that provides power to the UAV electronics. In addition, the UAV engine leaves a weak thermal trail, which reduces the likelihood of its damage by MANPADS operating on thermal radiation. Now about electronics. Judging by the open information, the basic version of the Shahed 136 uses a minimum of eclectronics. First of all, this is a civilian GPS, probably 5 different sensors that allow not only to set the course, but also to ensure the stabilization of the UAV in flight on all planes. There are no complex modules, no processes. There is no transfer of information and operator control. The Shahed 136 has only one task – to go to the target and rush at it. The lack of operator control and any feedback significantly reduce the cost of the product. The basic version of the UAV also does not have any guidance head, including an infrared one. Roughly speaking, there is practically nothing complicated there except for a civilian GPS and a 1980s-era engine. Shahed flies to his target at coordinates that can be obtained in various ways.: from satellite, from intelligence. In this regard, this UAV is effective for stationary objects. The disadvantage of using cheap civilian GPS is that the further the drone flies, the more likely it is to deviate from the target, and the higher the likelihood of interference from artificial or natural sources, such as thunderstorms, clouds, or electromagnetic fields from man-made objects. Shahed flies relatively slowly and rattles in the air. It can be shot down with small arms. It can be shot down with modern air defense systems. But often the missiles that are used to destroy the "Shaheds" are much more expensive than drones. Anti-aircraft guns are reliable protection of objects from "Shaheds".
The most promising way to use UAVs
The effectiveness of Shahed increases when it is used in a swarm, that is, when the target is attacked by several drones. It is likely that we will see the retrofitting of Shahed 136-type drones with additional guidance heads, which will make use of these UAVs on the front line against heavy equipment. That is, the UAV can be sent to the front line and, if equipment with specified thermal or other parameters is detected in the square, attack the target. 50 kg of explosives will destroy any tank. Imagine that 100 such UAVs attack enemy positions or 1000 drones arrive at some decision-making center. Moreover, they can fly by different routes, connecting at point A at a given time. Or fly up in waves. But for this, it is necessary to have an appropriate economy that would allow us to independently produce such relatively simple but effective types of weapons. Let me remind you of the story. On March 10, 1945, the American Air Force attacked Tokyo. 334 B29 bombers dropped about 1,665 tons of bombs on the Japanese capital. Half of Tokyo burned down. This raid, as well as the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, actually pushed Japan to surrender. The Allied army did not have to land on the Japanese islands and fight a group of 4 million personnel. I think that in the near future we will see the massive use of Shahed 136-type UAVs in the current theaters of action. At least, that's what the logic of events dictates. The whole question is which country will be able to establish the on-line production of these UAVs. With the mobilization of the economy and a strict goal setting, it is possible to produce up to 100,000 UAVs per month. Well, 10 thousand a month will also significantly rattle the nerves of the enemy. Let me remind you that in 1985, the USSR produced 2.5 million cars per year. Or more than 200 thousand per month. But UAVs are much easier to manufacture. It is likely that over time there will be a means of countering massive attacks by cheap UAVs. But that time has not yet come.
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